In support of the National Intelligence Council 2020 Project, we convened representatives from the Commonwealth to discuss regional and global outlook issues. Attendees presented short scenarios—7-10 pages in total—portraying a possible trajectory for their region out to the year 2020. The scenarios were not meant to be predictive but rather a portrayal of alternative possible futures. Attendees were welcome to present several alternative scenarios rather than a single outcome.

The NIC identified seven critical “drivers” in “Global Trends 2015” available elsewhere on this site. The Commonwealth Conference considered whether these drivers were valid for each region. We assessed whether some should be deleted and whether it makes sense to replace them with other drivers.

The Commonwealth Conference also discussed three-five of the most critical trends that will shape regional events between now and 2020. The conference also discussed three to five “wildcards” that might significantly alter the regional balance.

The National Intelligence Council routinely sponsors unclassified conferences with outside experts to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in the following papers are those of individual participants. They are presented not as final reports of the NIC 2020 project but to stimulate discussion and debate. The papers are labeled discussion paper -- does not represent the views of the US Government -- and should not be cited in any other manner.

The National Intelligence Council routinely sponsors unclassified conferences with outside experts to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in the following papers are those of individual participants. They are presented not as final reports of the NIC 2020 project but to stimulate discussion and debate. The papers are labeled discussion paper -- does not represent the views of the US Government -- and should not be cited in any other manner.

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