This was not just another conference on "What's next in Africa?" This workshop, which was held in South Africa, was unlike a typical conference because we did not ask for formal presentations and commentaries, nor did we want predictions or a "most likely" scenario about what the future holds for the region. "Predictions" or straightforward "forecasts" are usually wrong, tend to be derivative and uninteresting, and usually short-circuit productive discussions about how regions might develop. In this discussion, we explored alternative, possible futures, and did not come to a group consensus about a single most likely future. 

We purposely kept the number of participants small (about 15 specialists from the region) so that a more intimate and spontaneous conversation between experts could take place. Participants were asked to adopt a mindset that allowed them to listen to colleagues, react and speculate about the future—keeping just one foot in the realm of the plausible. We encouraged participants to be creative in interpretations, keep an open mind, and be willing to explore new and unconventional ideas. Toward the end of the discussions, wild cards—low probability, high impact events—were considered and their implications fully explored.

Review the discussion from the 09 Jan 2004 Africa in 2020 Panel.

The National Intelligence Council routinely sponsors unclassified conferences with outside experts to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in the following papers are those of individual participants. They are presented not as final reports of the NIC 2020 project but to stimulate discussion and debate. The papers are labeled discussion paper -- does not represent the views of the US Government -- and should not be cited in any other manner.

The National Intelligence Council routinely sponsors unclassified conferences with outside experts to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in the following papers are those of individual participants. They are presented not as final reports of the NIC 2020 project but to stimulate discussion and debate. The papers are labeled discussion paper -- does not represent the views of the US Government -- and should not be cited in any other manner.

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