|
 Participants
in this regional workshop explored the key drivers
that will shape regional developments out to the
year 2020 and then developed scenarios that best
depicted the key interactions among the most significant
drivers.
More
specifically, the group was asked to:
- Identify the most significant drivers
for the region that will emerge in
2020.
- Examine their variability over the
next 16 years.
- Explore their interaction and the
resulting impact on the region.
- Develop 3 or 4 regional scenarios
that best capture the dynamic
interactions and relations between
drivers. The scenarios should be
plausible, distinct—not slight
variations of a single scenario—and
important for the region.
This
was not just another conference on "What's next
in Russia?" This workshop, which was held in Hungary,
was unlike a typical conference because we did not
ask for formal presentations and commentaries, nor
did we want predictions or a "most likely"
scenario about what the future holds for the region.
"Predictions" or straightforward "forecasts" are
usually wrong, tend to be derivative and uninteresting,
and usually short-circuit productive discussions
about how regions might develop. In this discussion,
we explored alternative, possible futures, and did
not come to a group consensus about a single most
likely future.
The
National Intelligence Council routinely sponsors
unclassified conferences with outside experts to
sharpen the level of debate on critical issues.
The views expressed in the following papers are
those of individual participants. They are presented
not as final reports of the NIC 2020 project but
to stimulate discussion and debate. The papers are
labeled discussion paper --
does not represent the views of the US Government
-- and should not be cited
in any other manner. |
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