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Participants in a regional workshop explored the
key drivers that will shape regional developments
out to the year 2020 and then developed scenarios
that best depicted the key interactions among the
most significant drivers.
More
specifically, the group was asked to:
- Identify the most significant drivers
for the region that will emerge in
2020.
- Examine their variability over the
next 16 years.
- Explore their interaction and the
resulting impact on the region.
- Develop 3 or 4 regional scenarios
that best capture the dynamic
interactions and relations between
drivers. The scenarios should be
plausible, distinct—not slight
variations of a single scenario—and
important for the region.
- Regional workshops will examine
larger global forces at work and
consider how their impact will play
out regionally.
We
purposely kept the number of participants small
(about 15 specialists attended) so that a more intimate
and spontaneous conversation between experts could
take place. Participants were asked to adopt a mindset
that allowed them to listen to colleagues, react
and speculate about the future—keeping just
one foot in the realm of the plausible. We encouraged
participants to be creative in interpretations,
keep an open mind, and be willing to explore new
and unconventional ideas. Toward the end of the
discussions, Wild Cards—low probability, high
impact events—were considered and their implications,
fully explored.
The
National Intelligence Council routinely sponsors
unclassified conferences with outside experts to
sharpen the level of debate on critical issues.
The views expressed in the following papers are
those of individual participants. They are presented
not as final reports of the NIC 2020 project but
to stimulate discussion and debate. The papers are
labeled discussion paper --
does not represent the views of the US Government
-- and should not be cited
in any other manner. |
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