The scenario building process began with an examination of underlying drivers of change, and the construction of scenarios out of the interaction of these drivers. To facilitate discussion, the NIC identified several key drivers for the region and asked appropriate participants to prepare discussion papers on them for the workshop.

The papers covered the importance and variability of the driver through 2020, and significant interactions between the driver and others. Authors were free to introduce additional drivers and to debate/dispute those the NIC had identified.

The workshop discussed the key drivers as presented by paper authors, and then proceeded to develop alternative scenarios from the interaction of the drivers. Expert scenario facilitation, provided by the Asia Society (AS), was critical to this process, as was a thorough and accurate record of the discussion.

The National Intelligence Council routinely sponsors unclassified conferences with outside experts to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in the following papers are those of individual participants. They are presented not as final reports of the NIC 2020 project but to stimulate discussion and debate. The papers are labeled discussion paper -- does not represent the views of the US Government -- and should not be cited in any other manner.

The National Intelligence Council routinely sponsors unclassified conferences with outside experts to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in the following papers are those of individual participants. They are presented not as final reports of the NIC 2020 project but to stimulate discussion and debate. The papers are labeled discussion paper -- does not represent the views of the US Government -- and should not be cited in any other manner.

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