Good judgment in forecasting international affairs - The Washington Post

Good judgment in forecasting international affairs - The Washington Post

Wednesday, 27 November 2013 11:00

November 26, 2013

By Michael Horowitz
The Washington Post

The Economist’s The World in 2014 issue just hit newsstands, focusing international attention on the geopolitical outcomes we can expect to see over the next 12-14 months. The issue features an article by University of Pennsylvania psychologist Phil Tetlock and journalist Dan Gardner on the Good Judgment Project, a research study funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA, the U.S. government’s analog to DARPA), which makes such geopolitical predictions every day.

Since 2011, IARPA has posed about 100-150 questions each year to research teams participating in its ACE forecasting tournament on topics such as the Syrian civil war, the stability of the Eurozone and Sino-Japanese relations. Each research team was required to gather individual predictions from hundreds or thousands of forecasters online and to generate daily collective forecasts that assign realistic probabilities to possible outcomes.

The Good Judgment Project emerged as the clear winner...

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