Global Trends
Paradox of Progress
The achievements of the industrial and information ages are shaping a world to come that is both more dangerous and richer with opportunity than ever before. Whether promise or peril prevails will turn on the choices of humankind.
What is Global Trends?
Every four years since 1997, the National Intelligence Council has published an unclassified strategic assessment of how key trends and uncertainties might shape the world over the next 20 years to help senior US leaders think and plan for the longer term. The report is timed to be especially relevant for the administration of a newly elected US President, but Global Trends increasingly has served to foster discussions about the future with people around the world. We believe these global consultations, both in preparing the paper and sharing the results, help the NIC and broader US Government learn from perspectives beyond the United States and are useful in sparkling discussions about key assumptions, priorities, and choices.
What is the National Intelligence Council?
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) serves as the US Intelligence Community's center for the long-term strategic analysis. Since 1979, the NIC has served a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities—as well as a facilitator for outreach to outside experts. The NIC's National Intelligence Officers, drawn from government, academia, and the private sector, are the IC's senior substantive experts on a range of issues and work under the auspices of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The NIC covers the regions of the world as well as functional topics, such as economics, security, technology, cyber, terrorism, and the environment. The NIC coordinates Intelligence Community support for US policy deliberations while producing papers and formal National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) on critical national security questions.
How we do Global Trends?
The NIC Global Trends project involves extensive research and consultations with people inside the US government and around the world. We reviewed key assumptions and trends, starting with an examination of regions that was aggregated to identify broader global dynamics. We explored the implications of various trends and discontinuities over the near term (5 years) and long term (20 years). We made extensive use of analytic simulations to explore future trajectories and developed multiple scenarios to describe how key uncertainties and emerging trends might combine to produce alternative futures.
