As part of our ongoing transparency efforts to enhance public understanding of the Intelligence Community’s (IC) work and to provide insights on national security issues, ODNI today is releasing these unclassified key judgements from the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) Conflict in the Gray Zone: A Prevailing Geopolitical Dynamic Through 2030 and an updated IC Gray Zone Lexicon dated July 2024.
National Intelligence Council
National Intelligence Council
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Within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the NIC carries out its mission under the direction of the Deputy Director for Intelligence Integration and the Chairman, Vice Chairman, and Counselor, who lead a corps of National Intelligence Officers. 
The NIOs serve as the “analytic arm” of the National Intelligence Manager teams and are responsible for producing finished intelligence analysis.
They support the NIMs’ efforts to integrate US intelligence and develop and implement Unifying Intelligence Strategies to address the nation’s most pressing national security concerns.
Mission Areas
The NIC’s core missions are to:
- The NIC promotes exemplary use of analytic tradecraft and standards, including alternative analysis, new analytic tools and techniques, and wider collaboration within the IC.
- Provide senior policymakers with coordinated views of the entire Intelligence Community, including National Intelligence Estimates.
- Prepare IC principals and represent the IC at National Security Council Principals and Deputies Committee meetings.
- Tap non-USG experts in academia and the private sector to broaden the IC’s knowledge and perspectives.
Although most of the NIC’s work is classified, the NIC also produces or commissions unclassified reports, many of which can be found in the documents section of this page.
Global Trends
Every four years the NIC publishes an update of its Global Trends series that identifies key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a couple of decades into the future. The most recent Global Trends report, Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World was published in March 2021.
Featured Publication:
Additional Reading:
Global Trends
Global Trends is designed to provide an analytic framework for policymakers early in each administration as they craft national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. The goal is not to offer a specific prediction of the world; instead, our intent is to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures.
- Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World (full site)
- Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress
- Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
- Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
- Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future
- Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts
- Global Trends 2010
Annual Threat Assessments (ATAs)
The Intelligence Community's Worldwide Threat Assessment is released by the Director of National Intelligence annually at public hearings of the IC oversight committees in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. Often referred to simply as the "ATA," the Annual Threat Assessment provides an unclassified summary the Intelligence Community’s evaluation of current threats to U.S. national security, including cyber and technological threats, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, crime, environmental and natural resources issues, and economic issues.
- 2024: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Avril Haines - 2023: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Avril Haines - 2022: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Avril Haines - 2021: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Avril Haines - 2019: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Dan Coats - 2018: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Dan Coats - 2017: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
- 2016: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI James R. Clapper - Read more...
Intelligence Community Assessments (ICAs)
National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs)
- 2024: Conflict in the Gray Zone: A Prevailing Geopolitical Dynamic Through 2030
- 2024: Dynamics Shaping Global Health Security In the Next Decade
- 2023: North Korea: Scenarios for Leveraging Nuclear Weapons Through 2030
- 2022: Economic and National Security Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic Through 2026
- 2022: Afghanistan Implications of Taliban Rule 2022
- 2021: Chinese Space Activities Will Increasingly Challenge U.S. Interests Through 2030
- 2020: ISIS Core Rebuilding, Poised to Grow Globally Through 2021
- 2021: National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change
National Intelligence Council Assessments (NICAs)
- 2024: Sub-Saharan Africa: Progressive Democracy Protesters Joining Global Campaigns
- 2024: Iran's Hardline Regime in Transition Presents Diversified Challenges for the United States
- 2021: Declassified Assessment on COVID-19 Origins
- 2021: Unclassified Summary of Assessment on COVID-19 Origins
- 2020: Cyber Operations Enabling Expansive Digital Authoritarianism
- 2021: Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena
- 2021: Unclassified Summary of Assessment on Domestic Violent Extremism
- 2021: Assessing the Saudi Government's Role in the Killing of Jamal Khashoggi
National Intelligence Council Memoranda (NICMs)
Sense of the Community Memoranda (SOCMs)
Older Intelligence Products (1999-2015)
Special Products
- 2015: Global Food Security Assessment
- 2015: Selected Emerging Agriculture Technologies Through 2040
- 2013: Wildlife Poaching Threatens Economic, Security Priorities in Africa
- 2012: Global Water Security: Intelligence Community Assessment
- 2012: Global Water Security Map
- 2011: The Threat to U.S. National Security Posed by Transnational Organized Crime
- 2011: Transnational Organized Crime (Foldout)
- 2009: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Commissioned Research and Conference Reports
- 2008: Strategic Implications of Global Health
- 2008: Strategic Implications of Global Health Map
- 2007: Unclassified Key Judgments - Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead (from January 2007 NIE)
- 2006: Declassified Key Judgments - Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States (from April 2006 NIE)
- 2004: Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces
- 2003: SARS: Down But Still a Threat
- 2003: Unclassified Key Judgments - Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction (from October 2002 NIE)
- 2002: The Next Wave of HIV/AIDS: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India, and China
- 2002: Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces
- 2001: Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 2001-2002
- 2001: Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015
- 2001: Global Growing Migration and Its Implications for the US
- 2000: The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States
- 1999: Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015
- 1999: Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 1999-2000
- 1999: Environmental Outlook in Russia
- 1996: Law of the Sea: The End Game
Commissioned Research Reports
- 2015 Global Food Security: Emerging Technologies to 2040
- 2015 The Future of Indian Ocean and South China Sea Fisheries: Implications for the United States
- 2015 Global Food Security: Market Forces and Selected Case Studies
- Identity Technologies: Trends, Drivers, and Challenges - An Industry Discussion
- Natural Resources in 2020, 2030 and 2040: Implications for the United States
- China: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- India: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- Russia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Russia Foldout
- Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- North Africa: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- Mexico, The Caribbean, and Central America: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
Conference Reports
- 2015 Global Food Security: Key Drivers - A Conference Report
- 2010 Conference Report Southeast Asia The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- 2010 Conference Report Mexico Caribbean Central America Climate Change 2030
- 2009 Conference Report Russia The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- 2009 Conference Report North Africa The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- 2009 Conference Report India The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- 2009 Conference Report China The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- 2008 Conference Report Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordon Policies on Regional Issues
- 2008 Conference Report Disruptive Civil Technologies
- 2008 Conference Report Democratization in Africa
- 2007: Nonstate Actors: Impact on International Relations and Implications for the United States
- 2007: The Putin Era In Historical Perspective
- 2005: Mapping the Future of the Middle East
- 2005: Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future
- 2003: Strategic Reactions to American Preeminence: Great Power Politics in the Age of Unipolarity
- 2002: Resolving Conflicts In The Causcus and Moldova: Perspectives On Next Step
- 2002: Afghanistan and Regional Geopolitical Dynamics after 11 September
- 2001: Workshop on Information Technology in Africa
- 2001: Impact of the War on Terror on Certain Aspects of US Policy in the Middle East
- 2001: Russia In the International System
- 2001: North Korea's Engagement-Perspectives, Outlook, and Implications
- 2000: Russia's Physical and Social Infrastructure: Implications for Future Development
- 2000: Central Asia and South Caucasus: Reorientation's, Internal Transition, and Strategic Dynamics
- 2000: East Asia and the US: Current Status and Five-Year Outlook
- 2000: Prospects for WTO Trade Negotiations After Seattle: Foreign Strategies and Perspectives
- 2000: China and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Implications for the United States
- 1999: Buck Rogers or Rock Throwers?
- 1999: China's Future: Implications for the US Interests
- 1999: Ukraine: Challenges of the Continuing Transition
- 1999: Recent Chinese Leadership Priorities and Their Implications to the United States
- 1999: Northeast Asia: Static but Stable
- 1999: Federalism in Russia: How Is It Working?
Who We Are
Within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the NIC carries out its mission under the direction of the Deputy Director for Mission Integration, who delivers a more integrated Intelligence Community (IC), and the NIC Chair, who leads a cadre of National Intelligence Officers (NIOs) that serve as the substantive experts on regional and functional issues within the IC.
What We Do
Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a unique bridge between the intelligence and policy communities. Today the NIC supports the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) in her role as head of the IC and is the Community’s center for strategic, rigorous, and objective estimative all-source analysis. On behalf of the Council, the NIOs:
- promote exemplary use of analytic tradecraft, including through analysis of alternatives and other advanced analytic techniques and tools
- coordinate the assessments of the entire IC, including through National Intelligence Estimates
- represent the IC at interagency policy meetings hosted by the National Security Council and prepare IC principals for national security discussions
- engage with non-government experts in academia, the private sector, and civil society to gain knowledge and insight to sharpen the level of debate about critical issues
Publications
Although most of the NIC’s work is classified, the NIC also produces or commissions unclassified reports, many of which can be found in the documents section of this page. This includes Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World, published in 2021. Every four years since 1997, the NIC publishes an assessment of the key trends and developments likely to shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades.