As part of our ongoing transparency efforts to enhance public understanding of the Intelligence Community’s (IC) work and to provide insights on national security issues, ODNI today is releasing these unclassified key judgements from the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) Conflict in the Gray Zone: A Prevailing Geopolitical Dynamic Through 2030 and an updated IC Gray Zone Lexicon dated July 2024.
Featured Publication:

Additional Reading:
Global Trends
Global Trends is designed to provide an analytic framework for policymakers early in each administration as they craft national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. The goal is not to offer a specific prediction of the world; instead, our intent is to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures.
- Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World (full site)
- Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress
- Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds
- Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
- Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future
- Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts
- Global Trends 2010
Annual Threat Assessments (ATAs)
The Intelligence Community's Worldwide Threat Assessment is released by the Director of National Intelligence annually at public hearings of the IC oversight committees in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. Often referred to simply as the "ATA," the Annual Threat Assessment provides an unclassified summary the Intelligence Community’s evaluation of current threats to U.S. national security, including cyber and technological threats, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, crime, environmental and natural resources issues, and economic issues.
- 2024: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Avril Haines - 2023: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Avril Haines - 2022: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Avril Haines - 2021: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Avril Haines - 2019: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Dan Coats - 2018: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI Dan Coats - 2017: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
- 2016: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community
Opening Statement from DNI James R. Clapper - Read more...
Intelligence Community Assessments (ICAs)
National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs)
- 2024: Conflict in the Gray Zone: A Prevailing Geopolitical Dynamic Through 2030
- 2024: Dynamics Shaping Global Health Security In the Next Decade
- 2023: North Korea: Scenarios for Leveraging Nuclear Weapons Through 2030
- 2022: Economic and National Security Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic Through 2026
- 2022: Afghanistan Implications of Taliban Rule 2022
- 2021: Chinese Space Activities Will Increasingly Challenge U.S. Interests Through 2030
- 2020: ISIS Core Rebuilding, Poised to Grow Globally Through 2021
- 2021: National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change
National Intelligence Council Assessments (NICAs)
- 2024: Sub-Saharan Africa: Progressive Democracy Protesters Joining Global Campaigns
- 2024: Iran's Hardline Regime in Transition Presents Diversified Challenges for the United States
- 2021: Declassified Assessment on COVID-19 Origins
- 2021: Unclassified Summary of Assessment on COVID-19 Origins
- 2020: Cyber Operations Enabling Expansive Digital Authoritarianism
- 2021: Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena
- 2021: Unclassified Summary of Assessment on Domestic Violent Extremism
- 2021: Assessing the Saudi Government's Role in the Killing of Jamal Khashoggi
National Intelligence Council Memoranda (NICMs)
Sense of the Community Memoranda (SOCMs)
Older Intelligence Products (1999-2015)
Special Products
- 2015: Global Food Security Assessment
- 2015: Selected Emerging Agriculture Technologies Through 2040
- 2013: Wildlife Poaching Threatens Economic, Security Priorities in Africa
- 2012: Global Water Security: Intelligence Community Assessment
- 2012: Global Water Security Map
- 2011: The Threat to U.S. National Security Posed by Transnational Organized Crime
- 2011: Transnational Organized Crime (Foldout)
- 2009: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Commissioned Research and Conference Reports
- 2008: Strategic Implications of Global Health
- 2008: Strategic Implications of Global Health Map
- 2007: Unclassified Key Judgments - Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead (from January 2007 NIE)
- 2006: Declassified Key Judgments - Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States (from April 2006 NIE)
- 2004: Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces
- 2003: SARS: Down But Still a Threat
- 2003: Unclassified Key Judgments - Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction (from October 2002 NIE)
- 2002: The Next Wave of HIV/AIDS: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India, and China
- 2002: Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces
- 2001: Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 2001-2002
- 2001: Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015
- 2001: Global Growing Migration and Its Implications for the US
- 2000: The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States
- 1999: Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015
- 1999: Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 1999-2000
- 1999: Environmental Outlook in Russia
- 1996: Law of the Sea: The End Game
Commissioned Research Reports
- 2015 Global Food Security: Emerging Technologies to 2040
- 2015 The Future of Indian Ocean and South China Sea Fisheries: Implications for the United States
- 2015 Global Food Security: Market Forces and Selected Case Studies
- Identity Technologies: Trends, Drivers, and Challenges - An Industry Discussion
- Natural Resources in 2020, 2030 and 2040: Implications for the United States
- China: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- India: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- Russia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 Russia Foldout
- Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- North Africa: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- Mexico, The Caribbean, and Central America: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
Conference Reports
- 2015 Global Food Security: Key Drivers - A Conference Report
- 2010 Conference Report Southeast Asia The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- 2010 Conference Report Mexico Caribbean Central America Climate Change 2030
- 2009 Conference Report Russia The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- 2009 Conference Report North Africa The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- 2009 Conference Report India The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- 2009 Conference Report China The Impact of Climate Change to 2030
- 2008 Conference Report Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordon Policies on Regional Issues
- 2008 Conference Report Disruptive Civil Technologies
- 2008 Conference Report Democratization in Africa
- 2007: Nonstate Actors: Impact on International Relations and Implications for the United States
- 2007: The Putin Era In Historical Perspective
- 2005: Mapping the Future of the Middle East
- 2005: Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future
- 2003: Strategic Reactions to American Preeminence: Great Power Politics in the Age of Unipolarity
- 2002: Resolving Conflicts In The Causcus and Moldova: Perspectives On Next Step
- 2002: Afghanistan and Regional Geopolitical Dynamics after 11 September
- 2001: Workshop on Information Technology in Africa
- 2001: Impact of the War on Terror on Certain Aspects of US Policy in the Middle East
- 2001: Russia In the International System
- 2001: North Korea's Engagement-Perspectives, Outlook, and Implications
- 2000: Russia's Physical and Social Infrastructure: Implications for Future Development
- 2000: Central Asia and South Caucasus: Reorientation's, Internal Transition, and Strategic Dynamics
- 2000: East Asia and the US: Current Status and Five-Year Outlook
- 2000: Prospects for WTO Trade Negotiations After Seattle: Foreign Strategies and Perspectives
- 2000: China and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Implications for the United States
- 1999: Buck Rogers or Rock Throwers?
- 1999: China's Future: Implications for the US Interests
- 1999: Ukraine: Challenges of the Continuing Transition
- 1999: Recent Chinese Leadership Priorities and Their Implications to the United States
- 1999: Northeast Asia: Static but Stable
- 1999: Federalism in Russia: How Is It Working?
To Submit A Complaint
The Office of Civil Liberties, Privacy and Transparency (CLPT) reviews, assesses and, where appropriate, investigates complaints and other information indicating possible abuses of civil liberties and privacy in the administration of ODNI programs and operations. Please note, the CLPT Officer’s statutory duty extends only to the administration of programs and operations of the ODNI.
If your concern involves a program or operation administered by another U.S. Government department or agency, please submit your concern directly to that agency.
Depending on the subject matter, your complaint may be referred to the IC Office of Inspector General or to another U.S. Government department or agency, such as the Department of Justice, to conduct an investigation as appropriate.
No action constituting a reprisal, or threat of reprisal, will be made against a Federal employee for making a complaint or for disclosing information to the CLPT that indicates a possible violation of civil liberties or privacy protections in the administration of ODNI programs and operations, unless the complaint is made or the information is disclosed with the knowledge that it was false, or made with wilful disregard for its truth or falsity.
To report a potential civil liberties and privacy violation or file a complaint, please provide a written, detailed description of the incident and surrounding circumstances, and include copies of any unclassified documentation pertaining to the matter.
The information should be mailed to:
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
ATTN: Office of Civil Liberties, Privacy and Transparency
Washington, DC 20511

Who We Are
Within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the NIC carries out its mission under the direction of the Deputy Director for Mission Integration, who delivers a more integrated Intelligence Community (IC), and the NIC Chair, who leads a cadre of National Intelligence Officers (NIOs) that serve as the substantive experts on regional and functional issues within the IC.
What We Do
Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a unique bridge between the intelligence and policy communities. Today the NIC supports the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) in her role as head of the IC and is the Community’s center for strategic, rigorous, and objective estimative all-source analysis. On behalf of the Council, the NIOs:
- promote exemplary use of analytic tradecraft, including through analysis of alternatives and other advanced analytic techniques and tools
- coordinate the assessments of the entire IC, including through National Intelligence Estimates
- represent the IC at interagency policy meetings hosted by the National Security Council and prepare IC principals for national security discussions
- engage with non-government experts in academia, the private sector, and civil society to gain knowledge and insight to sharpen the level of debate about critical issues
Publications
Although most of the NIC’s work is classified, the NIC also produces or commissions unclassified reports, many of which can be found in the documents section of this page. This includes Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World, published in 2021. Every four years since 1997, the NIC publishes an assessment of the key trends and developments likely to shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades.
Civil Liberties Privacy Office
The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act
The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (Title I of Public Law 108-458; 118 Stat. 3688) amended the National Security Act of 1947 and created the position of “Civil Liberties Protection Officer” within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. In 2005, Alexander Joel was appointed as the Civil Liberties Protection Officer, and charged with the responsibilities set forth below. These duties include ensuring that the programs and policies of the United States Intelligence Community appropriately incorporate protections of civil liberties and privacy. In addition, under Section 1062 of the Act (which Congress amended in 2007), the Civil Liberties Protection Officer oversees the issuance of reports regarding the activities of the office, including the types of reviews undertaken and the disposition of complaints received. Copies of these reports are provided to Congressional oversight committees, the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board, and are made available to the public in an unclassified format. The Act specifically prohibits reprisal against individuals who submit complaints to a privacy or civil liberties officer.
The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act
(Title I of Public Law 108-458; 118 Stat. 3688)
Sec. 103D of the National Security Act of 1947, codified as 50 USC 403-3d
(a) Civil Liberties Protection Officer.
(1) Within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, there is a Civil Liberties Protection Officer who shall be appointed by the Director of National Intelligence.
(2) The Civil Liberties Protection Officer shall report directly to the Director of National Intelligence.
(b) Duties. The Civil Liberties Protection Officer shall-
(1) ensure that the protection of civil liberties and privacy is appropriately incorporated in the policies and procedures developed for and implemented by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the elements of the intelligence community within the National Intelligence Program;
(2) oversee compliance by the Office and the Director of National Intelligence with requirements under the Constitution and all laws, regulations, Executive orders, and implementing guidelines relating to civil liberties and privacy;
(3) review and assess complaints and other information indicating possible abuses of civil liberties and privacy in the administration of the programs and operations of the Office and the Director of National Intelligence and, as appropriate, investigate any such complaint or information;
(4) ensure that the use of technologies sustain, and do not erode, privacy protections relating to the use, collection, and disclosure of personal information;
(5) ensure that personal information contained in a system of records subject to section 552a of title 5, United States Code (popularly referred to as the "Privacy Act"), is handled in full compliance with fair information practices as set out in that section;
(6) conduct privacy impact assessments when appropriate or as required by law; and
(7) perform such other duties as may be prescribed by the Director of National Intelligence or specified by law.
(c) Use of agency Inspectors General. When appropriate, the Civil Liberties Protection Officer may refer complaints to the Office of Inspector General having responsibility for the affected element of the department or agency of the intelligence community to conduct an investigation under paragraph (3) of subsection (b).
Section 1062 -- PRIVACY AND CIVIL LIBERTIES OFFICERS (as amended by Section 803 of the Implementing Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007, codified as 42 USC 2000ee-1).
(a) Designation and Functions—The Attorney General, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Director of National Intelligence, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and the head of any other department, agency, or element of the executive branch designated by the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board under section 1061 to be appropriate for coverage under this section shall designate not less than 1 senior officer to serve as the principal advisor to—
(1) assist the head of such department, agency, or element and other officials of such department, agency, or element in appropriately considering privacy and civil liberties concerns when such officials are proposing, developing, or implementing laws, regulations, policies, procedures, or guidelines related to efforts to protect the Nation against terrorism;
(2) periodically investigate and review department, agency, or element actions, policies, procedures, guidelines, and related laws and their implementation to ensure that such department, agency, or element is adequately considering privacy and civil liberties in its actions;
(3) ensure that such department, agency, or element has adequate procedures to receive, investigate, respond to, and redress complaints from individuals who allege such department, agency, or element has violated their privacy or civil liberties; and
(4) in providing advice on proposals to retain or enhance a particular governmental power the officer shall consider whether such department, agency, or element has established—
(A) that the need for the power is balanced with the need to protect privacy and civil liberties;
(B) that there is adequate supervision of the use by such department, agency, or element of the power to ensure protection of privacy and civil liberties; and
(C) that there are adequate guidelines and oversight to properly confine its use.
(b) Exception to Designation Authority—
(1) PRIVACY OFFICERS—In any department, agency, or element referred to in subsection (a) or designated by the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board, which has a statutorily created privacy officer, such officer shall perform the functions specified in subsection (a) with respect to privacy.
(2) CIVIL LIBERTIES OFFICERS—In any department, agency, or element referred to in subsection (a) or designated by the Board, which has a statutorily created civil liberties officer, such officer shall perform the functions specified in subsection (a) with respect to civil liberties.
(c) Supervision and Coordination—Each privacy officer or civil liberties officer described in subsection (a) or (b) shall—
(1) report directly to the head of the department, agency, or element concerned; and
(2) coordinate their activities with the Inspector General of such department, agency, or element to avoid duplication of effort.
(d) Agency Cooperation—The head of each department, agency, or element shall ensure that each privacy officer and civil liberties officer—
(1) has the information, material, and resources necessary to fulfill the functions of such officer;
(2) is advised of proposed policy changes;
(3) is consulted by decision makers; and
(4) is given access to material and personnel the officer determines to be necessary to carry out the functions of such officer.
(e) Reprisal for Making Complaint—No action constituting a reprisal, or threat of reprisal, for making a complaint or for disclosing information to a privacy officer or civil liberties officer described in subsection (a) or (b), or to the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board, that indicates a possible violation of privacy protections or civil liberties in the administration of the programs and operations of the Federal Government relating to efforts to protect the Nation from terrorism shall be taken by any Federal employee in a position to take such action, unless the complaint was made or the information was disclosed with the knowledge that it was false or with willful disregard for its truth or falsity.
(f) Periodic Reports—
(1) IN GENERAL—The privacy officers and civil liberties officers of each department, agency, or element referred to or described in subsection (a) or (b) shall periodically, but not less than quarterly, submit a report on the activities of such officers—
(A)(i) to the appropriate committees of Congress, including the Committee on the Judiciary of the Senate, the Committee on the Judiciary of the House of Representatives, the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs of the Senate, the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform of the House of Representatives, the Select Committee on Intelligence of the Senate, and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence of the House of Representatives;
(ii) to the head of such department, agency, or element; and
(iii) to the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board; and
(B) which shall be in unclassified form to the greatest extent possible, with a classified annex where necessary.
(2) CONTENTS—Each report submitted under paragraph (1) shall include information on the discharge of each of the functions of the officer concerned, including—
(A) information on the number and types of reviews undertaken;
(B) the type of advice provided and the response given to such advice;
(C) the number and nature of the complaints received by the department, agency, or element concerned for alleged violations; and
(D) a summary of the disposition of such complaints, the reviews and inquiries conducted, and the impact of the activities of such officer.
(g) Informing the Public—Each privacy officer and civil liberties officer shall—
(1) make the reports of such officer, including reports to Congress, available to the public to the greatest extent that is consistent with the protection of classified information and applicable law; and
(2) otherwise inform the public of the activities of such officer, as appropriate and in a manner consistent with the protection of classified information and applicable law.
(h) Savings Clause—Nothing in this section shall be construed to limit or otherwise supplant any other authorities or responsibilities provided by law to privacy officers or civil liberties officers.
The Assistant Director of National Intelligence for Acquisition, Procurement & Facilities leads the AP&F organization, which includes senior leaders and subject matter experts drawn from across the Intelligence Community with years of experience and expertise in the fields of Program Management, Systems Engineering, Research, Procurement, and Facilities Management.



